A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
